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2012 US Election Prediction

November 2, 2012

US election cycles are fascinating. They are now long (2 years), expensive (between $1 and $2 billion US), divisive and tight.

The 2012 election is no different.

Over the course of the last six months or so I’ve gone from believing a second term for President Obama was in the bag, to being entirely unimpressed with both candidates, to thinking Governor Romney has a chance, to thinking Governor Romney will be president next year to now believing that Obama will be awarded a second term.

I’ve read more and carried on more informative conversations this year than ever before. Most importantly I’ve learned more from this election cycle than any previous.

What I’ve found is that those opinions that are the least partisan and least biased tend to the be the most interesting and fun. Those of my US friends who I’ve known to vote both Democrat and Republican tend to have the most informed opinions. Those websites that are the least myopic, like Real Clear Politics, are unfailingly the most useful.

So this year for the first time I relied mostly on PBS for post debate analysis, Real Clear Politics for data, articles and polling information, The Economist for an international perspective and the Wall Street Journal for generally balanced coverage.

While predictions aren’t really worth anything (it’s the election day polls that matter, right?), I have spent a bit of time combing through the most up to date polling information from Real Clear Politics.

From this analysis I predict that President Obama will be re-elected with 290 electoral college votes and Governor Romney will lose with 248 votes. Obama will get Ohio (thanks to the auto bailout) and Romney will get Florida.

What can change this?

The ground war.

If Romney’s “Get Out the Vote” teams in the battle ground states are better than Obama’s then he still has a chance. We’ll only know that by the evening of November 6th!

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